How It Works

Transparency is key. Here is the math behind LuckyStaker's analytics.

Daily Probability Calculation

The "Daily Probability" represents the chance that a single 32 ETH validator will be selected to propose a block on any given day.

// The Formula (MaxEB Compatible)

Probability = (32 ETH / Total Active Stake) × 7,200 Epochs

  • 32 ETH: The standard effective balance of a validator.
  • Total Active Stake: The sum of all effective balances in the network (e.g., ~31 million ETH).
  • 7,200: The number of epochs in a 24-hour period (225 epochs/slot × 32 slots).

Note: This formula accounts for "MaxEB" (Maximum Effective Balance). If a validator has more than 32 ETH (e.g., 2048 ETH), their individual probability scales linearly (see below).

Luck & Expected Proposals

"Luck" is a measure of how your actual performance compares to statistical probability.

// Expected Proposals Logic

MyWeight = MyEffectiveBalance / 32 ETH

DailyExpected = NetworkProbability × MyWeight

TotalExpected = Σ (DailyExpected for every day active)


// Luck Rating

Luck = Actual Proposals / TotalExpected

  • 100% Luck: You got exactly as many proposals as statistics predicted.
  • >100% Luck: You are getting more proposals than average (Lucky!).
  • <100% Luck: You are getting fewer proposals than average (Unlucky).

Simulator Math (Poisson vs Normal)

The Proposal Simulator helps you visualize the variance of staking. We use two different statistical models depending on your input size to ensure accuracy and performance.

Standard Stakers (<1000 ETH)

We use the Poisson Distribution. This is the gold standard for rare events (like proposing a block). It accurately models the "lumpy" nature of luck for solo stakers.

Whales & Institutional (>1000 ETH)

We switch to a Normal (Gaussian) Distribution. When you have thousands of expected proposals, the Poisson distribution converges into a Bell Curve. This allows us to simulate millions of ETH instantly.

Data Integrity

LuckyStaker connects directly to the Beacon Chain to fetch live network data.

  • Live Sync: Data is refreshed every few minutes to track new validators and proposal events.
  • Historical Accuracy: We maintain a complete history of the network state since Genesis (Dec 2020), ensuring your long-term stats are calculated against the network conditions at that time.
  • Transparency: LuckyStaker is built for the community. The math is transparent and open for verification.