How are probabilities calculated?

Probabilities are calculated using validator counts, slot opportunities, validator lifespan and other data from the Ethereum mainnet.

What data is used?
  • Ethereum mainnet data from Dec 1 2020 thru today.
  • What can I do to improve validator luck?
    • Limit validator downtime
    • Maintain a solid network connection
    • Update your client(s) when new versions are available
    • Hang out in the EthStaker Discord and be friendly (not a verified way to improve luck...but a rad thing to do!)

    How can I join the Ethereum staking community?

    What information is stored by this site?

    Username, email and the list of bookmarked validators are stored for each user. Passwords are encrypted, not stored as plaintext, and thus are not accessible or recoverable. It is recommended that you use a username/email that meets your personal or professional privacy requirements.

    Who built this site?

    LuckyStaker was inspired and built by the EthStaker community.

    How can I contribute?

    Report bugs and feature requests in the EthStaker Discord channel.

    How can I make sure this site continues operating?

    Consider contributing to the operating fund to help pay for operating costs: ETH 0x394D3E1e5f6f9D6d20E8A32C4D4e67Ba23dd9Ab8

    Is this site open-source?

    Not yet! We're working to make it open-source but it's not quite ready, yet.

    What is LuckyStaker?

    LuckyStaker is a web app that enables Ethereum node operators, stakers and validators to understand the probabilities and luck related to block proposals.

    It has a number of features that process and present statistical data about Ethereum mainnet and about individual stakers.

    The statistics can answer questions like:
    • What is the probability of a block proposal today?
    • What was the luckiest/unluckiest day in Ethereum staking history?
    • What is the probability of a block proposal within the next 30 days?
    • How many proposals could a validator expect within the next360 days?
    • How lucky is a specific validator?
    • How lucky is a set of validators? (set view w/ individual statistics)
    • Has a validator received the expected number of proposals over its lifespan?
    • What is the hit rate of a validator (number of proposals / number of slot opportunities)
    • ...and more!
    New features
    • Daily proposal probabilities
    • Proposal probabilities by n-days and n-proposals
    • Individual validator lookup & statistics view
    • User accounts
    • Bookmarks to mark validators of interest
    • Bookmarked validator overview page
    Planned features
    • Leaderboard
    • Luck historical chart
    • Add validator search & daily probability to navbar
    • More statistics
    • Sync committee stats
    • Aggregate statistics for multiple validators (average luck accross validators)
    • User guide
    • Styling enhancements
    • Tooltips
    Known bugs/issues
    • Including 'www' in the URL results in a 400 error (permanent redirect is needed)
    • URL patterns are repetetive
    • Account action form styling needs update
    • Luck chart is not legible in mobile portrait
    • FAQ margins are incorrect
    • Margins on mobile are too large
    • Need visual indicator when pages/stats are loading